Palm Harbor and Dunedin residents remain under strict outdoor watering limits as the Tampa Bay area enters fall anchored in Florida's worst drought zone.

The Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) imposed Modified Phase III "Extreme" Water Shortage restrictions April 3. The order limits lawn and garden watering to overnight and evening hours — 12:01 a.m. to 4 a.m. or 8 p.m. to 11:59 p.m. — unless a local government sets stricter rules. Fox 13 reported June 23 that the SWFWMD board voted to extend those restrictions through October.

Statewide Drought Conditions Worsen Heading Into September

The drought is not easing. A U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Sept. 3 placed the most extreme drought conditions in the state over the Tampa Bay area, spreading into central and southwest Florida, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported Sept. 4. Statewide, 62% of Florida is in some stage of drought, with another 25% classified as abnormally dry.

"The long-term drought, unfortunately is still around. Our rivers are low, our reservoirs are low. We still need some more rain to bounce back," said Stephen Shiveley, a National Weather Service Tampa Bay meteorologist.

Rainfall Deficits Vary Widely Across the Region

The Tampa Bay area was running more than 12 inches below average rainfall at the start of summer, according to FPREN's Aug. 21 report. By Aug. 21, that deficit had narrowed to about 4 inches after a stretch of storms. But the Sept. 3 Drought Monitor data suggests conditions worsened again.

Across the state, the numbers are stark. Sarasota and Fort Lauderdale each fell about 15 inches below normal rainfall for the June-through-August period, and Miami recorded a 14.7-inch deficit, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

A Historically Long, Dry Summer

FPREN meteorologist Leslie Hudson noted the season was unusually long. A rare calendar alignment pushed the stretch from Memorial Day on May 25 through Labor Day on Sept. 7 to 106 days, WMNF reported Sept. 5. Pensacola was the only major Florida city to post a rainfall surplus.

Officials Say 2026 Ranks Among the Driest Years on Record

South Florida Water Management District Bureau Chief Cassondra Armstrong said at an Aug. 13 meeting that 2026 ranks as one of the driest years on record, just above 2011. That year, West Palm Beach told water managers it had only 22 days of supply left and asked restaurants to serve water only when customers requested it.

Water Managers Look to El Niño for Relief

Water managers are counting on a strong El Niño this winter to replenish supplies before the dry season, which runs roughly from mid-October through mid-May. John Mitnik, chief engineer at the South Florida Water Management District, said at the same Aug. 13 meeting that projections point toward a "super El Niño" needed to sustain the regional water system.

The current SWFWMD watering restrictions run through October. Florida's dry season begins in mid-October.