The House Majority PAC spent nearly $3 million against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in October in the Pinellas County-centered congressional race that covers Palm Harbor and Dunedin.

The House Majority PAC, aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, drove the bulk of that spending. In all, Democratic outside groups have poured more than $4.5 million into flipping Florida's 13th Congressional District, the Tampa Bay Times reported Oct. 29. GOP groups including the Freedom Caucus Fund and the Make America Healthy Again PAC have spent a combined $1.6 million on Luna's behalf.

The cash flood follows a string of ratings shifts. Cook Political Report moved the race from likely Republican to lean Republican on Sept. 25, according to Florida Politics. Fox News Power Rankings made the same likely-to-lean move Sept. 22. Inside Elections followed on Oct. 1, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean Republican on Oct. 27, according to Florida Politics. All four national forecasters now rate the seat Lean Republican, not a toss-up.

Cook House Editor Erin Covey cited Luna's "polarizing reputation" and noted she ran 4 points behind Donald Trump in the district in 2024, Florida Politics reported.

Two veterans, one seat

Voters will choose Nov. 3 between Luna, a Republican seeking a third term, and retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, a Democrat. A third candidate, no-party Tony D'Arrigo, is also on the ballot.

Gray spent more than 30 years in the U.S. Army, including combat deployments, and retired as deputy commanding general of U.S. Army Central. Luna enlisted in the U.S. Air Force at 19 and served six years. Gray's campaign says about 60,000 veterans live in the district.

Both candidates have leaned into their military credentials. Gray held a campaign event at a Veterans of Foreign Wars post near Indian Rocks Beach. Luna appeared alongside Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins to discuss improving services.

"This is not 2024. This is 2026," Gray said Oct. 22 after casting her mail ballot at a rally with former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and U.S. Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-California, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

At a rally Oct. 24, Luna told supporters: "When we choose to pick our battles, we win. I don't play to lose."

Polls tell competing stories

Most public polls in the race have come from partisan sponsors. A Luna-sponsored August poll showed her ahead by 8 points. Two post-primary polls sponsored by the House Majority PAC showed Gray up by 5 points and 1 point, respectively, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

Luna's campaign spokesperson said Oct. 24 that an internal Republican poll shows Luna ahead. That poll has not been released.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) considers the race a key pickup opportunity. Luna won her previous two elections by about 9 points each. But redistricting by Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican-led Legislature shifted the district's lines. The redrawn map added a red portion of coastal Pasco County and removed parts of St. Petersburg and Gulfport. Trump carried the new district by more than 13 points in 2024, a 2-point shift to the right.

Money race

As of Oct. 14, Luna reported raising more than $4.3 million to Gray's more than $2.9 million. Both had less than $1 million on hand, according to the Tampa Bay Times.

Election Day is Nov. 3.