Florida Democrats registered more voters than Republicans in September for the first time in at least five years. The shift comes as national forecasters label the Pinellas County congressional race as competitive.

Democrats added 29,633 new voters statewide last month, edging out the 29,140 that Republicans added, according to Florida Politics. The gap: 493 voters.

Michael Pruser, an elections analyst with Decision Desk HQ who has tracked state registration totals since 2021, confirmed the September flip had not happened in at least five years, the Tampa Bay Times reported Oct. 1.

Republicans still lead overall by more than 1.5 million active registered voters as of Aug. 31. The Republican Party of Florida closed 2025 with 5,509,354 registered voters out of 13.3 million statewide, compared to 4,044,390 Democrats.

Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power dismissed the September numbers as negligible in an Oct. 1 text to the Tampa Bay Times.

"Republicans have added over 420,000 net to our advantage since the last election," Power said. "The real question is when (voters without a party affiliation) will overtake Democrats."

About 3.3 million Florida voters have no party affiliation, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Democrats have lost more than one million registered voters since 2020.

District 13 draws national attention

Cook Political Report on Sept. 25 moved Florida's 13th Congressional District from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," according to Newsweek. The district, anchored in Pinellas County, includes Palm Harbor and Dunedin.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican, faces Democrat Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general, and no-party candidate Tony D'Arrigo on the Nov. 3 ballot, according to the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections. Gray won her three-person Democratic primary with 65% of the vote.

Dueling polls paint different pictures. A House Majority PAC poll conducted by Hart Research Associates showed Gray leading Luna 51% to 46%, Newsweek reported. An internal poll conducted for Luna by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates in August showed her ahead by 8 points.

Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey wrote in the Sept. 25 analysis that "Republicans are losing ground with many of the Hispanic voters with whom they made major inroads in 2024."

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in an Oct. 1 statement that "Floridians are tired of paying more for groceries, gas, housing, and insurance while Republicans in Tallahassee and Washington make life harder for working families."

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a new congressional map into law on May 4. Whether District 13's boundaries changed under the new map is unclear from available records.

What Pinellas voters need to know

The voter registration deadline for the Nov. 3 general election is Monday, Oct. 5. Early voting runs Monday, Oct. 19, through Sunday, Nov. 1. The deadline to request a mail ballot is Oct. 22 at 5 p.m. Polls open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day.